Post-Worlds Way Too Early Olympic Lineup Predictions

[boconnell]

2 hours ago, okokzach said:

This was earlier this year at a catchweight 

https://www.flowrestling.org/video/13814559-88-kg-fwnia-zahid-valencia-cowboy-rtc-vs-trent-hidlay-wolfpack-rtc

Thank you for that.  Zahid looked stronger and more physical.  That's wild.  

[MizzouFan01]

I’d add O’Toole in the mix at 74kg. He should be fully healed if not now soon. Not saying he will make the team, but he has a chance. I would put him on par with Carr and Mitchell. 

[TylerDurden]

14 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

realistically how many guys are you giving a shot? I think at this moment and it could change there are 7 contenders Mendez,Jax,Marcus,Valencia,Real,Stanich,Bassett. Jax and Marcus are probably the only two that are still actively growing physically so I think that is a bump for them. Valencia and Bassett are both super tough but do not feel like guys to me that are at this moment progressing at the same rate as the other guys and are not at this moment in a training environment that is conducive to making up the ground they need to so I am going to take them out that could change depending on where Bo goes. So my list is down to 5. Jesse lacks wins as of now in freestlye a lot of his expectations are based off of a yianni win when yianni was seemingly quite compromised and a close match with sub optimal Zain. He has losses to Larkin and real and beat blaze essentially off of shot clock points when Blaze was still in high school and weighed in 6lbs under. He is also the second oldest and has been in the same training situation for 4 years now and while he has made steady progression the bulk of his gains seemed to be from year 1 to year 2. I am assuming Jax and Blaze not factoring in size are comparable to him skill wise right now and give them more room for growth in the next 3 years. so that leaves Stanich,Real,Blaze,Jax. Stanich wins with his handfight and pace he was largely out wrestled by toprak for 2 minutes and then melted him which is a skill that works great internationally but I dont see him melting guys domestically although he does seem to still have a lot of room for growth looking at current trajectory, however I am going to removed him. Age makes me want to remove Real instinctually but he made drastic strides in my opinion from the open to what he did today. I do not think the guy that lost to valencia would have beaten sujeet or honestly have been within a few points of him so I am keeping him in as well as Jax and Blaze. So for my money 3 guys have a shot in 2028 to win the weight however I will bake in 10% chance for any of them to lose to the field. I still would have any of the 3 as a 30% shot to win right now although because of bias I would definitely inflate Jax. This of course is the way too early look so all of this could change drastically in 6 months to a year.

This speaks to how competitive the spots will be if we're writing off Mendez three years out. 

[RandolphTJones]

18 hours ago, Gus said:

Is there a reason for Snyder to go to 125kg? He looks smaller than a lot of the 97kg guys that he competes against. 

Maybe if Hidlay can move to 97 and be the guy? Seems like 125KG is our "weakest" weight moving forward? 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

38 minutes ago, RandolphTJones said:

Maybe if Hidlay can move to 97 and be the guy? Seems like 125KG is our "weakest" weight moving forward? 

We have tremendous depth at 125,probably more depth under the age of 30 than any other weight.  Unfortunately, a lot of them retired, took the year off, attempted to join the NFL, or are doing MMA. (or focused on making money off NCAA success)

Edited 7 hours ago by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[RandolphTJones]

1 hour ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

We have tremendous depth at 125,probably more depth under the age of 30 than any other weight.  Unfortunately, a lot of them retired, took the year off, attempted to join the NFL, or are doing MMA. (or focused on making money off NCAA success)

Yes, hence "weakest" for future possibilities of medaling. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

1 minute ago, RandolphTJones said:

Yes, hence "weakest" for future possibilities of medaling. 

Not sure.  Hopefully:

Parris has his head on straight. (Age group world champ)

Wyatt starts to focus more on wrestling.  (age group world champ)

Kerkvliet is healthy (age group world champ)

Kueter grows and is healthy (age group world champ and silver; Azarpira was in his weight)

Trumbull grows and continues to improve (age group world champ)

Ferrari gets his head on straight (age group medalist)

Yonger could play a role if all goes right

I won't count on the wee/nfl/bjj/mma guy.

And there are others.

Looks pretty deep to me.

 

[RandolphTJones]

My probable lineup as of now:

57kg: Lee- Olympic Silver Medalist think he remains on the team, Lilledahl could also make huge noise.

65KG- Forrest/Blaze/Mendez- All 3 aging what 18-22 right now? Plenty of past medals and time to improve.

74KG- Dake a previous Bronze medalist, Carr right there with the best. Laso 18/19 PJ Duke, also plenty of time to improve. 

86KG- Valencia- Dominant right now

97KG- Plethora of Olympic Worl Medals already. In case he burns out due to age Hidlay a great option B

125KG- Parris repped at the Olympics- went 0-1, Hendrickson repped at Worlds also 0-1. Those 2 look to be the 2 favorites at 125KG right now. Someone else may very well step in here but with past results and potential, thats why I view this as our weakest weight moving forward. 

[Dogbone]

28 is 3 years away, if the youth trend continues its entirely possible someone on the 28 team is only 15-17 years old currently.  

[Paul158]

3 hours ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Not sure.  Hopefully:

Parris has his head on straight. (Age group world champ)

Wyatt starts to focus more on wrestling.  (age group world champ)

Kerkvliet is healthy (age group world champ)

Kueter grows and is healthy (age group world champ and silver; Azarpira was in his weight)

Trumbull grows and continues to improve (age group world champ)

Ferrari gets his head on straight (age group medalist)

Yonger could play a role if all goes right

I won't count on the wee/nfl/bjj/mma guy.

And there are others.

Looks pretty deep to me.

 

It's too bad we have American Football. We would probably have the top 25 heavyweight wrestlers in the world. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

5 hours ago, RandolphTJones said:

My probable lineup as of now:

57kg: Lee- Olympic Silver Medalist think he remains on the team, Lilledahl could also make huge noise.

65KG- Forrest/Blaze/Mendez- All 3 aging what 18-22 right now? Plenty of past medals and time to improve.

74KG- Dake a previous Bronze medalist, Carr right there with the best. Laso 18/19 PJ Duke, also plenty of time to improve. 

86KG- Valencia- Dominant right now

97KG- Plethora of Olympic Worl Medals already. In case he burns out due to age Hidlay a great option B

125KG- Parris repped at the Olympics- went 0-1, Hendrickson repped at Worlds also 0-1. Those 2 look to be the 2 favorites at 125KG right now. Someone else may very well step in here but with past results and potential, thats why I view this as our weakest weight moving forward. 

You do realize that Parris has a 2023 bronze and had a back and forth battle with geno, right? That’s a piece of the puzzle, too. 
in fact, didn’t he have a ranking tournament win over geno?

Edited 16 minutes ago by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[BruceyB]

On 9/16/2025 at 11:12 AM, nhs67 said:

61 KG - Forrest, <5% 65 KG, <1% 57 KG

I'm curious how you'd give Forrest a less than 1 in 20 chance to make the team at 65kg. He just made the world team as a high schooler and 65kg is almost certainly going to be the most natural weight for him in 2028. He's still pretty spindly.

That being said, I also think that 65kg is going to be the deepest weight at OTT. I don't know if from 3 years out you can really give anyone more than ~15% chance to make the team. I don't even know who the favorite to make the team would be. Mendez? Valencia? Woods? Jax? Blaze?