Comparing Olympic Trials Qualifiers to NBA Playoff Teams
I think by nature I’m a bit of a contrarian. When someone tells me I can’t do something, I am that much more determined to prove them wrong. I don’t remember when that became a character trait of mine, or the first time when I became determined to do something I was told I couldn’t do, but I also can’t remember a time when I wasn’t like this. It’s an irrational confidence that sometimes helps in life and sometimes doesn’t help. The point being, I’m doing an Olympic Trials preview right now where I compare some of the trial participants to NBA Playoff teams. Wrestling and Basketball don't always have the same fan base, but I’m one of the fans of both sports, and as such I’m uniquely positioned to write this. Many people say I’m the best person to write this, and I can’t let those people down.
So here’s the premise, I’m going to take three wrestlers of my choosing from each weight, and attach them to their NBA playoff team that best represents their situation. There are 20 potential NBA Playoff teams (8 per conference and 2 play-in game teams per conference as well) and obviously, there are more wrestlers than that, which is why this is limited to the 18 of my choosing. Also, I am going to try to focus this on whoever makes the most sense for a comparison in my mind. It won’t be the top three seeds necessarily per weight, but more so where it makes sense. Stick with me on this. This is for fun though, and if you love wrestling and basketball, this should be great for you. If you just like wrestling, then maybe you’ll learn something! Either way, let’s get into it and have some fun!
57kgs - Spencer Lee has looked awesome since he’s been back to freestyle. He’s been dominant in the competitions we’ve seen him in since NCAAs, and he very clearly is a heavy contender for the Olympic spot. In fact, despite not having wrestled many freestyle competitions in recent years, he’s likely the fan favorite. I mean, just the story alone would be amazing right?
He fell in the semi’s in his effort to win four NCAA titles, he’s battled injuries throughout his entire career (largely overcoming most of them), and now he’s here and (seemingly) healthy and ready for this run through the Olympics! But there is that looming injury cloud floating around. That uneasy feeling that at any point this run could be derailed. This tournament is tough enough to win while healthy, and sadly Spencer’s track record of health is not ideal. As a result, I’m comparing Spencer to the LA Clippers.
At times this year, the Clippers looked absolutely unstoppable. A couple weeks after trading for James Harden, the Clippers went 18-4 from December 26th, 2023 through February 10th, 2024. However, like Spencer, there is the looming injury risk of any of their big 3 (James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George). Plus, like Spencer, they all have a track record of getting hurt at the worst times. They have depth, but the Western Conference is incredibly tough (much like the 57kg bracket), so a healthy playoff run is the only way I can see them making it through.
Zane Richards had a great run through the World Trials last year to make the team. He had wins over Nick Suriano, and eventually over World Champion Thomas Gilman to earn the spot. He’s been around for years on the Senior national scene, so anyone who has watched and respected his work was very happy to see him get over the hump and earn that spot. That is all to say that it was not expected though. Anyone who has watched him knew that he was super dangerous, and he’s been consistently competing in high-level international events for the US, so we’ve seen what he’s capable of, and yet it still didn’t seem like he was going to make the run that he did.
Similarly, the Miami Heat limped into the playoffs last year as a play-in team, and eventually went on a run through the number 1 seeded Milwaukee Bucks, through the Boston Celtics, and eventually made their way back into the NBA Finals. This team had shown that they could “flip the switch” so to speak, but still, nobody believed it was going to happen. The Heat entered the playoffs this year once again as a play-in team, and once again aren’t quite the favorite, but I don’t think anyone was excited to see them at this point in the year. They tend to find a way to win games you think they wouldn’t, and so does Zane.
Thomas Gilman has been the best in the world, and is looking to reclaim that spot. He’s been so dominant at times, and he’s continued to develop his style and evolve over the years. He got really good at that underhook on the left side, and paired with his unrelenting pressure and gas tank, that makes for a dangerous combination in freestyle. He’s coming in with a chip on his shoulder, and something to prove as well, which is a scary thing to think about.
All that reminds me of Giannis and the Milwaukee Bucks. They won the title a couple of years ago, and Giannis is always one of the guys to fear. You know what he’s going to do, but it’s a matter of stopping him, and most teams can’t do that. Add Damian Lillard to that team and there’s a new element to have to deal with. The results during the regular season have been uneven throughout the year, but in a seven-game series nobody should be excited for that matchup. All that is to say, is that there are no surprises when facing Thomas Gilman, and yet it’s incredibly difficult to stop. Both Gilman and the Bucks are coming in with something to prove and that should be unnerving for the competition.
65kgs - Andrew Alirez is must-see TV. The 2023 NCAA Champion redshirted this season to prepare himself for this Olympic run, and his run through the Senior Nationals qualifier indicates that the training and preparation is going well. Alirez has a lot of ways to beat you. He’s comfortable going upper body, he has great turns from the top, his transition wrestling is smooth and seamless, and he has a variety of setups and attacks from neutral that are dynamic. Those are all very positive things, but this weight class has several guys like that, as well as guys who have been there and done it all before. As such, Alirez is the Oklahoma City Thunder.
OKC got the 1 seed in the ultra-competitive Western conference this year, and they have looked good all year. They have some dynamic pieces on their team, and they have great chemistry. However, they are very young and have very little playoff experience on their roster. They have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been an MVP candidate all year, along with rookie standout Chet Holmgren, but they lack size and experience. Alirez has everything you need to win it all, but when there are four guys at this weight who have been senior world medalists (James Green, Nick Lee, Yianni Diakamihalis, and Zain Retherford), it makes me concerned that the lack of experience at a tournament of this caliber could be tough to make it through, it’s not impossible, but if it doesn’t happen for Alirez or OKC, it’ll be simply the level of experience rather than talent.
James Green is back baby! The 2x World Medalist (2015 bronze and 2017 silver) came out of retirement earlier this year for another run at the Olympics. The last time I saw him wrestle was in Detroit at the Rudis event before NCAAs started, and James beat Zain Retherford in that match. He eventually retired due to injury issues with his hip, but he seems to be healthy and ready for one last ride. He’s as scary as it gets, and I’m sure if he decided to make the return, then he must feel as healthy and explosive as we’ve ever seen him. But this is kind of the opposite of the Alirez thing. James hasn’t competed in one of these qualifiers in a couple of years, and in addition to that, he hasn’t competed particularly well at 65kgs. As good as he is, his age and the weight cut are glaring concerns. I hope that he can get back to the levels that we’ve seen him at in the past, but I just don’t know! Same with the Golden State Warriors.
They’ve had injury concerns, Draymond Green concerns, inconsistencies in their performances, lineup changes, and just a lot of things for them to overcome. They are the 10 seed and a play-in team in the West, and despite their history of winning NBA championships and having most of the same roster, this just seems different. It would be great to see both Golden State and James Green make a run, and everyone will love it, but there are some big questions about both.
Zain Retherford gets the bye to the semifinals as a result of being the World Champion at 70kgs last summer. Zain was so dominant in college, and he has had some awesome battles over the years with a cast of characters just to make these teams (Yianni, Jordan Oliver, Nick Lee of late, the aforementioned James Green), so him winning the World Championship last year seemed like something that would allow him to exhale. Maybe the title would allow Zain to wrestle a little more freely and somehow make him more dangerous! But I can’t talk about Zain without talking about his physical and grinding style of wrestling. So many times we’ve seen guys with this style not be able to sustain through a big tournament. We’ve referred to this as the Metcalf, where you lose a close one, but you beat the hell out of the guy so badly that they lose their next match and now your tournament is over. Zain didn’t have to worry about that last year, because he just beat all of the dudes, so problem solved!
So if I’m focused here on that grinding workman-like style, then that brings us to the New York Knicks. Tom Thibedeau, Jalen Brunson, OG Anunobi, Josh Hart, these dudes are grinders. There is hard-nosed defense from all of those guys, and a guy like Brunson will just find a way to score, despite not having the flashiness of some of the other All-Stars. The Knicks have everything that you’d need to win it all this year. It might not always be pretty, and it might not always be flashy, but it is suffocating and can’t possibly be enjoyable for their opponents. The same can easily be said for taking a ride on the Zain Train.
74kgs - Jordan Burroughs arrives as the 1 seed ready to battle through as tough a domestic bracket as he’s ever seen. In the past, he’s had the great pleasure of waiting in the best-of-three finals, but this year he has to journey through the gauntlet with the rest of the competitors for the joy of wrestling against Kyle Dake for the spot (more on him later). Jordan is an accomplished veteran with a long list of accomplishments in his awesome and storied career, looking for another chance at that top spot.
As such, it would be weird if I didn’t liken him to LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. King James won the COVID NBA title with the Lakers a couple of years back, and their team will likely have two All-NBA players with himself and Anthony Davis, and yet they are going to need to battle it out with the Pelicans just for the chance to officially make the playoffs, and likely against the defending NBA Champion Denver Nuggets. Jordan has been the consummate professional in his career to this point, and it’s been great to hear his perspective on the sport in broadcasts and other events where he’s been on the mic. No matter what happens in these trials, Jordan will either get to extend the legend of Jordan Burroughs, or he’ll lose, but either way, you can trust that he put everything he had into this Olympic run.
Kyle Dake has the pleasure of sitting in the finals of the challenge tournament to take on the winner in the best-of-three match. When you make the world finals, you don’t have to do all of the work. You get to chill.
A brief aside though, I need to extend my truest condolences to the Dake family. It was announced this morning that Kyle’s father, Doug, had passed away. I cried watching the clip that Kyle had posted of the two of them wrestling for the last time (as I had done many times with my own father who passed away a couple of years ago), and continued to as I read his heartfelt message regarding his father and their relationship. In reading that message, it was easy to recognize the bond that they had. Once again, genuine condolences to the Dake family.
Back to my silly article, Kyle Dake in the wrestling world has been as consistent as it gets. He’s won 4 World Gold Medals (2 at 79kgs and 2 at 74kgs), and won the Olympic bronze in 2020, along with a World Silver last year (loss to Sidakov). Kyle has proven that his defense is on a completely different level than the rest of the planet, and with the exception of a weird match in the Olympics 4 years ago in the semis, and the close loss to Sidakov, he’s controlled the world like Thanos. That being said, he lost last year, just like the Celtics. But also like the Celtics, he should be able to comfortably expect to be in the finals. Dake just needs to make weight, whereas the Celtics need to make their way through the East (which should be as easy as making weight). Whoever they face in the finals, both Dake and the Boston Celtics will have their work cut out for them to earn what they covet.
Jason Nolf could potentially join the long list of guys who get stuck behind Jordan Burroughs over the course of the last 13 years. At least for Nolf, Burroughs is probably nearing the end of his reign of terror, but then you have Kyle Dake as well, who we all know is aging backward. That has to backfire at some point. Either way, Jason has shown that he has what it takes to be a world medalist, and maybe even a World/Olympic champ one day. I like to think he has at least one more quad in him, which the other two likely would not. But either way, he wants it all right now and certainly has the skill to do it. Maybe it’s too soon? Does he need some more time? There’s undoubtedly a lot to be intrigued with, and clearly a bright future ahead, but it seems a little early. That to me is the New Orleans Pelicans. Zion Williamson looks to be in better shape (finally), Brandon Ingram is certainly something, they have a thousand first-round draft picks, Jonas Valanciunas is a strong option at center and still has a lot of career left. Both New Orleans and Jason Nolf clearly have the pieces to make a run in the next couple of years and end up at the top of the podium, but it just seems like there’s a little too much in their way at the moment.
86 kgs - Aaron Brooks fresh off a fourth NCAA title and Hodge trophy strolls right into this tournament with momentum and excitement surrounding him. He looked as sharp as ever, and even in the anticipated Hidlay v Brooks NCAA final, was able to stop the unstoppable force and control most of the match with his own underhook. It’s one thing to be as talented as Aaron Brooks, it adds a whole new element when he wrestles as smart as he does as well. This weight is rather loaded, but we’ve seen Brooks get wins over just about anyone in the field not named David Taylor. We’ve even seen him beat the likes of Zahid Valencia, casually waiting for his match in the second semis (yes, that’s what it’s called). But like Nolf referenced above, it just seems a little too soon. There’s a juggernaut in front of him who has been beating planet Earth for the better part of the last several years. A man, seemingly made of magic, who can’t be stopped. Brooks has undeniable talent, athleticism, and wrestling acumen, but is he ready?
Similar things have been said about Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Ant Man is the second coming of D Wade, and has all the charisma and leadership skills that it takes to elevate a team earlier than maybe they are ready. When Karl Anthony Towns went down with an injury earlier this year, Anthony Edwards kept the ball rolling with the Timberwolves and they almost got the 1 seed in the West anyway. Brooks seems like that’s the best comparison for him. Really damn close, but it just seems like the inevitable will be in his way.
Zahid Valencia gets his bye to the second semis (I’m not sure if the bracket makers know how brackets work) after his World Bronze at 92 kgs last summer in Belgrade. He is like if you taught a Gatling gun how to wrestle. He’s constantly firing off attacks, ankle picks, snaps, slide by’s, and sweep singles, it’s all there. Sometimes it works out great and he overwhelms almost everyone in the world. Sometimes it doesn’t work and now you’re tired and you have an Aaron Brooks ready to storm back into the match like what happened in the 86 kg World Team Trials last year. But mostly it works, so he keeps doing it. Both Zahid, and his NBA playoff counterpart, can absolutely win it all and if so it will be because their offense is so nasty and unrelenting that the rest of the world can’t keep up.
But Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Mavericks of Dallas seem like the right comparison here. There’s unbelievable firepower in this lineup, and their role players seem to be gelling at the right time to get the most of their minutes and opportunities in the lineup. Also, like Zahid, their defense doesn’t get enough credit either. That’s been impressive recently. But at its core, both of them want to outscore you, and both have every bit of ability to do so.
David Taylor, the aforementioned Magic Man, is the inevitable though. He’s the Denver Nuggets. He’s shown that he can come through in clutch moments, or in moments right after the match starts, or at the end of the period, or while on the shot clock, or while you’re on the shot clock, or when it’s time to end the match, or on the edge of the mat, it doesn’t matter. If it’s on a wrestling mat, then it’s probably already over. Even his greatest rival, Yazdani, can’t figure out how to beat him anymore. Nikola Jokic is about to win his third MVP in four years, and likely his second NBA title in a row. Despite having the second seed in the West, they’re still the favorites to win it all and have routinely shown this season that when they need to get to another level, they will, and you can’t do anything about it. Is Nikola Jokic magic? Probably.
97 kgs - J’den Cox is healthy! He’s back and he’s healthy and he’s dangerous! It might be easy for some to overlook J’den at this point (not me, but I feel like it’s happening) since he’s been away from winning World Medals for a year, but he won six World Medals in 7 years from 2016 through 2022 (two of them being gold medals, and the only year he didn’t win a medal was the infamous Olympic missed weigh-ins year). But the dude has been a dominant force in the world for years and a beloved figure in the wrestling community. He’s back, and looking to get to the Olympics for the first time since 2016. He has a lot in his way to do it, but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
That’s why I’m comparing J’Den to the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid, another dominant force (last season’s MVP), was hurt earlier this season. He was out for a couple of months before returning just before the playoffs. He seems to be as healthy as you’d like him to be, healthy enough to compete at a high level, and has his 76ers ready to make a playoff run. Like J’Den, there is a lot in their way, and battling through the East from the 7 seed and a play-in game is a lot to ask, but this roster has the tools to get it done. Both J’Den and Philly are healthy and ready to go!
Handsome Nate Jackson made Final X in 2022 and took J’Den to three matches to make the team (J’Den took second in the world that year). He battled some injuries last year, but got surgery and has been steadily preparing for this Olympic run. We’ve seen what he’s able to do when he gets rolling, and despite people knowing how he’s going to attack, they can’t seem to stop it. It’s like, I know that standing on train tracks is a bad idea, but this train can move where you move and eventually it’s going to find you and then you get hit by a train. You can’t get out of the way. Just go with it. So if that’s the case, you have to take down the freight train, which is easier said than done. But offenses like this are hard to come by.
Only teams like the Indiana Pacers have that sort of offensive output to compare to a guy like HNJ. They scored the most points per game of any team this year, had the most assists, had the most field goals made and attempted, and overall scored the most points on the season. Only the Boston Celtics had a higher offensive rating overall (all of this according to statmuse.com). Now defensively they were not quite as proficient, but they know that and all that more of a reason to score so many points! They have some special players on their roster, Tyrese Haliburton being the main one, who helps drive that freight train on (or off) of the tracks. We’ll see if both HNJ and the Pacers can score enough points to get it done this summer.
Kyle Snyder is nearing a decade of taking first or second in the world. I guess technically he took third in the world in 2019 and 2023, but he’s been unreal for the better part of the last decade. Even longer than that really, he took first at the Junior World Championships in 2013, and then second in Junior Worlds in 2014 as well before starting his Senior level run. It’s almost too casual for us to forget how unworldly this run has been. It’s Bruce Baumgartner-esque. We’re so very clearly in this awesome run of USA wrestling from the last several years, and Kyle is a big part of it, but I still feel like he’s underrated somehow. Similarly to my fellow Kevin, Kevin Durant. He’s clearly one of the best forwards of all time, but his public perception is not at that level. There are reasons for that (I will feverishly defend the Slim Reaper and many of his decisions), but he’s won MVPs, NBA Championships, scoring titles, and battled back through injuries to remain consistent and efficient on offense and defense. He is with a Suns team at the moment that looks like they have the right pieces to make a run, and have enough scoring power to beat anyone. Snyder gets the chance to wait in the best of three finals, and he’s poised to continue this run and add to an already special legacy.
125 kgs - Greg Kerkvliet got it done! He showed emotion! All jokes aside, I was genuinely happy for him when he won his NCAA title. I can’t remember a more impressive wrestler to have only won one NCAA title. He had to go through the best NCAA heavyweight pool that we’ve had in my lifetime, so there’s that piece, but he earned it for sure. He’s shown in the past that he can be a force in the freestyle world, and he certainly has the training partners to help him capitalize on his talent and athleticism to step into this tournament and win it all. Another young team with a chance to put a run together would be the Orlando Magic. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, there’s a lot for Magic fans to be excited about. They could have made a run to end up the 2 seed in the East, but in the end, they are in a good spot with the 5 seed and a chance to battle the Cavs who seem like they are in between knowing what they want to do with their team (more on that in a moment as well). Banchero was the number one pick in the draft a couple of years ago, and Greg certainly has "top pick in the draft” energy. Both the Magic and Greg are young and dangerous and shouldn’t be overlooked at all.
Nick Gwiazdowski was the beginning of the Heavyweight run that I referenced above. You could make the argument about some other athletic and exciting heavyweights, but in my mind, it really begins with Gwiz. He was so exciting for NC State, and really made the entire field adjust to what he was doing. He continued that run once he got out of college by winning World bronze medals in 2017 and 2018. Since then though, the field seems to have caught up to him. That’s not a knock on Gwiz, but more so an acknowledgment of how he helped change the game. It’s been six years since Gwiz’s last world medal, and since then we’ve had Gable Steveson win Olympic Gold, and Mason Parris win World bronze just last year. It just seems like Gwiz is talented and prepared and has the resume that would back up him making a run here, but there’s something off. Similarly to the Cleveland Cavaliers. They have so much talent in the backcourt and the frontcourt, but it seems disjointed. Even their role players are one-dimensional, and as such, predictable. They’re the fourth seed in the East, but I don’t know anyone who predicts that they’ll get it done. I’m a huge Gwiz fan, and I hope he proves me wrong, but I don’t know if he can get past the Magic of Greg Kerkvliet.
Mason Parris gets to watch this all unfold comfortably in the best-of-three finals matchup. Chaos through the challenge tournament will unfold as he watches intently, like a hungry Lion ready to jump on injured and weakened prey. Heavyweights around the world are no joke. Gwiz winning two world bronzes is truly impressive, even though it just seems like I downplayed it a ton a moment ago. Guys like Taha Akgul, Geno Petriashvili, Gable Steveson, those guys make it look easier than it is. So Mason’s world bronze from last year is a remarkable thing, especially considering he was not expected to be the guy. Gable had to withdraw before Mason knew it was going to be his time, but he was ready! Now he gets to wait in the finals for the lucky person who gets to battle him for the final spot. He’s the final boss of the video game. His NBA comparison? I don’t have one. I ran out of good teams. He’s not the Hawks (Trey Young sucks), he’s not the Kings (Big DeAaron Fox fan), and he’s not the Bulls (Demar Derozen is super underrated). Those are the only teams I have left. Maybe if you took all the best players from those teams and made one team (Trey Young doesn’t get to be on that team), then that’s what Mason Parris would be. A fantasy draft of the remaining NBA Playoff teams is Mason Parris, who is looking to earn his own trip to Paris to do Parris things.
